As the first quarter of 2009 comes to an end, the markets roared into the month down handily, before investors were finally supported by positive economic news allowing buyers back into the markets.
Although the economy remains in turmoil, the affects from the global markets have become increasingly influential on the minds’ of investors these days. With that being said, the major indices were a direct by-product of countless economic reports, which played a role in the direction of the markets throughout the month.
Consumer confidence posted a reading of 26 in March. Although the reading stopped a three-month slide for the index, results were still below economists’ projected reading of 28. This time last year, the index stood at 65.9.
Inline with confidence increasing during the month, consumer spending advanced 0.6% in January, reversing a six-month trend of declines and following a 1% drop in December, while personal income advanced by 0.4% during the month.
Pending home sales dropped 7.7% in January, setting a new low with a reading of 80.4. However, sales of previously occupied homes jumped unexpectedly in February, the largest amount in nearly six years, as first-time buyers took advantage of deep discounts on foreclosures and other distressed properties. Although the numbers still hover near levels not seen since 1997, sales of existing homes grew 5.1% to an annual rate of 4.72M, up from 4.49M units in January. It was the largest sales jump since July 2003.
Meanwhile, new home sales for February jumped 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 337K units, up from January’s revised numbers of 322K. New home sales are still down more than 40% from this time last year. The median selling price for new homes currently sits at $209K, a record 18% decline from last year’s sales price.
Surprisingly, there was an unexpected increase in new home construction in February, as production jumped 22.2% from the previous month to an adjusted annual rate of 583K units, while applications for building permits increased 3% during February to an annual rate of 547K filings.
Adversely, overall construction spending in January plunged 3.3%, marking the fourth straight month that spending has receded. Residential construction dropped 2.9% and non-residential activity plunged 4.3%, the largest drop since January 1994.
The nation's industrial output retreated for the fourth straight month in February, decreasing by 1.4%, slightly worse than the 1.2% decline that had been expected. The weakness included a 0.7% decline in manufacturing, as the operating rate at the nation's factories was down to 67.4% of capacity, the lowest level on record dating back to 1948.
The overall operating rate for manufacturing, mining and utilities slipped to 70.9% of capacity in February, matching a record low set in December 1982. In addition, the nation’s productivity declined by 0.4% during the 4Q and unit labor costs surged 5.7% for the quarter.
Factory orders for January decreased by 1.9%, marking the sixth straight month that orders have declined. On the other hand, factory orders for durable goods in February advanced surprisingly, breaking the six-month string of declines. For the month, orders increased by 3.4%, substantially higher than the economists’ prediction of a 2% decline.
The most disheartening news came with February’s unemployment rate, which skyrocketed to 8.1%, its highest reading since 1983 and up from January’s 7.6% rate. Currently at a quarter-century high, the rate is expected to keep climbing in the months ahead, as economists predict the jobless rate could hit 10% at the end of this year.
The Commerce Department confirmed that the economy shrank at a 6.3% annual pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, and a bit faster than the 6.2% drop estimated in February. The main culprit behind the GDP downgrade was businesses cutting inventories more deeply than estimated a month ago. That shaved 0.11 percentage points off 4Q GDP, rather than adding 0.16 percentage points in the previous report.
In addition to a poor GDP report, the federal Treasury budget for February came in at $192.8B, up 10% over last year’s number. The yearly budget is projected to reach a record $1.75 trillion.
Moreover, the U.S. trade balance decreased in January to the lowest level in six years, falling to $36B, a decline of 9.7% from December and the lowest level since October 2002. The keys were crude oil imports slipping 25.2% to its lowest point in three years, while demand for a variety of foreign goods from heavy machinery to household appliances declined.
The January deficit of $36B, if remaining constant for the rest of the year, would result in a deficit of $432B for 2010, a drop of 36.5% from the $681.1B deficit recorded in 2008.
Wholesale prices (PPI) inched higher by 0.1% during February, well below the 0.4% increase expected and much lower than the 0.8% influx in January. The modest gains in February were accented by a 1.3% increase in the cost of energy, but were offset by the price of food dropping 1.6%, the largest one-month decline in more than three years.
The core inflation rate, excluding the costs of food and energy, advanced by 0.2%, slightly higher than the projected 0.1% increase, yet half that of January’s 0.4% increase in the core price rate.
In January, wholesale inventories declined for the fifth consecutive month, dropping 0.7%, following December’s decline of 1.5%, marking the longest stretch since the recession in 2001.
Furthermore, businesses slashed inventories by 1.1% in January, the fifth straight month of declines, after December's inventories were revised to show a 1.6% drop. The five consecutive declines marked the longest stretch since February 2001 to April 2002, when inventories were cut for 15 straight months.
Meanwhile, consumer prices (CPI) advanced during February with increases in the price of gasoline and clothing leading the way, as the CPI increased by 0.4%, its largest one-month move since a 0.7% increase back in July. Gas prices surged 8.3% and clothing costs advanced by 1.3% in the month, the biggest one-month jump in clothing prices since a 1.5% increase back in March 1990.
Upon the conclusion of March’s trading, the major exchanges booked solid gains throughout the month, more than had been seen since the recession started back in December 2007. Following February’s massive losses in trading, the Dow Jones rebounded to post a 7.7% gain for the month, adding nearly 550 points to finish at 7,608.92.
Meanwhile, the broader market indicators, the S&P and NASDAQ each booked substantial increases over the four-week trading period. The S&P 500 advanced 8.5%, adding more than 60 points and inching closer to the 800 level, finishing just three points shy of that mark. Lastly, the NASDAQ recorded the highest percentage gains for the month, surging nearly 11% to 1,528.59 as the tech heavy index climbed over 150 points for March.
