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News - February 2009

Better Trades Market Watch

Coming off a horrific start to the New Year, February’s trading was no place for the bulls. The major indices, which all posted losses of more than 6% during the first month of the year, added to those losses, as concerns that a reworked plan to aid the financial sector may not be enough to alleviate the country’s deepening recession.

With the signing of the stimulus package by President Obama during February, investors were upbeat, showing signs of trying to trade in the green, but couldn’t put a substantial run together to shake the sellers out of the markets. Escalating the fears of a worsening recession was news that business investments in equipment and software plunged at a 28.8% annual rate. With no relief in sight, the economic outlook remains sullen, as consumers and businesses alike are in full-retrenchment mode.

Adding to the woes of the nation, the employment report revealed that the nation’s unemployment rate surged to 7.6%, its highest reading since September 1992. Unemployment increased in January, as more than 598K jobs were lost during the month, the highest number since 1974, and now totals more than 3.6M.

As companies continue to reduce their workforce, the economy contracted by 6.2% during the 4Q of 2008, much worse than the 3.8% shrinkage economist were expecting, escalated by the markets’ massive declines. For all of 2008, the economy grew at a putrid pace of only 1.1%, weaker than projected and well below the 2% growth in 2007.With the economy receding, consumers cut spending by 4.3% during the quarter, its worse decline since the 2Q in 1980.

In December, consumer spending declined by 1%, slightly worse than the 0.9% decline economist had anticipated. Spending advanced at a 3.4% clip in 2008, its lowest showing since 1961. Personal income retreated as well, falling 0.2% in December, as 2008 saw personal income increase by only 3.7%, its lowest such showing since a 3.2% increase in 2003.

Furthering the demise of the markets and the economy as a whole was the U.S. trade deficit declining by 4% in December, marking the second straight year that the deficit contracted following five straight years of increases. The deficit dropped from $41.6B in November, to its current level of $39.9B.

With imports outweighing exports, the production at factories, mines and utilities declined by 1.8% in January, the third consecutive month in which production has been curtailed, alongside the nation’s operating capacity receding to 72%.

On a positive note, the country’s productivity increased at a rate of 3.2% during the 4Q, while unit labor costs increased at a more modest rate of 1.8% during the 4Q. In 2008, productivity increased by 2.8% as unit labor costs slowed to a rate of 0.5%, marking the smallest increase in unit costs since a 0.3% rate back in 2003.

With the nation fully entrenched in a recession, consumer confidence posted its lowest showing since 1967, with a reading of 25 in February, down more than 12 points from January’s reading of 37.4. Meanwhile, the Present Situation index retreated as well for the month, falling from 29.7 to a reading of 21.2. In addition, the Expectations’ index plummeted from a reading of 42.5 in January to 27.5 in February.

Additionally, the PPI, also referred to as wholesale prices, increased 0.8% in January, its largest increase since July. The core PPI, jumped more than anticipated as well, climbing 0.4%, much higher than the 0.1% expected.

Nevertheless, wholesale inventories were reduced by the largest amount in almost 17 years during December, cutting their reserves by 1.4%, nearly twice the 0.8% cut economists had anticipated. Meanwhile, sales at the wholesale level plunged 3.6% during the month as well, more than what analysts had projected, but far better than the 7.3% drop in November.

Furthermore, businesses reduced their inventories, due to the lackluster holiday sales season, by 1.3% in December, showing the largest decrease in more than 7 years, since a 1.5% reduction in October 2001. December marked the fourth straight month that businesses have cut their supplies.

The downward effects from the economy lead to the number of orders to U.S. factories in December declining by 3.9%, marking the fifth straight month that has occurred, with the amount of factory orders for the year advancing by only 0.4%, its lowest reading ever since a 1.8% drop in orders posted in 2002.

Meanwhile, orders for durable goods for January declined more-than-expected, falling 5.2% as consumers refrained from making big-ticket item purchases. On top of that, December’s numbers were revised to show a weaker reading than previously stated, adjusted downward from 3% to a 4.6% decline.

One encouraging statistic was retail sales for January increasing by 1%, bucking a six-month trend of negative sales growth, and marking the largest increase within the sector in the past 14 months.

As the housing industry remains mired in depressed activity, several readings concerning the sector were released throughout February. Included in those reports were constructions of new homes and apartments in January declining to record levels, plummeting 16.8% during the month, along with applications for building permits slipping 4.8% to an annual rate of 521K.

On top of that, new home sales for January plunged 10.2% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 309K units, its worst showing since 1963. Moreover, sales of existing homes during January plummeted to its lowest levels in nearly 12 years, as sales dropped 5.3% in the month to an annual rate of 4.49M units, its weakest reading since July 1997. The median price of homes sold in January fell to $170K, down 14.8% from the $199K a year earlier and lower than the $175K price in December.

Combating all the negative housing news was a reading in which pending home sales for December advanced, posting a reading of 87.7 for the month, up more than 6% from November’s reading. Additionally, the number of foreclosures in January declined 10% from December’s reading, yet remains more than 18% higher than January 2008.

By the conclusion of February’s trading, the markets posted considerable losses for the month. Heading into March, the Dow Jones finished the month down more than 900 points, or 11.7% at 7,060.93.

Meanwhile the broader market indicators ended the month deep in the red as well. The S&P 500 index was lower by 11% for February, losing just over 90 points to conclude the month at 735.09. Lastly, the tech-heavy NASDAQ composite lost slightly less than 100 points, or 6.7% to cease trading at 1,377.84.